Amid escalating tensions with the United States over the protracted Ukraine conflict, Russia is recalibrating its Asia strategy, placing India at the center of its diplomatic and defence outreach. This shift is driven by Moscow’s need to counter growing Western influence and to compensate for its increasing isolation on the global stage.
President Vladimir Putin’s administration is intensifying arms deals and high-level diplomatic engagement with New Delhi, aiming to revive the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral as a strategic counterweight to Western-led groupings such as the Quad.
Russia’s Motivations: Countering The West, Deepening China Ties
The Kremlin’s renewed focus on India is part of a broader strategy to balance the West by strengthening ties with both India and China. Russia and China, while not formal allies, have forged a pragmatic partnership rooted in shared opposition to US global dominance. Their cooperation has deepened since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with China providing crucial economic and political support to Moscow, despite maintaining a degree of diplomatic distance and avoiding direct military alignment. For Moscow, the war in Ukraine has tested and ultimately reinforced its reliance on China, but this growing asymmetry has also prompted concerns within Russia about becoming overly dependent on Beijing.
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By courting India, Russia seeks to diversify its partnerships in Asia and reduce its vulnerability to Chinese dominance. The revival of the RIC format is seen by Moscow as a way to present a united front against Western influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, and to leverage India’s strategic autonomy and regional clout.
India’s Strategic Tightrope: Autonomy Amid Competing Pressures
For India, the situation is complex. Historically, New Delhi has been one of Moscow’s largest arms importers, benefiting from advanced Russian military technology and longstanding diplomatic ties. However, India’s position has evolved as it deepens its defense and technology cooperation with the United States and other Western partners, notably through the Quad and expanded joint military exercises. At the same time, India has refrained from condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine, abstaining from UN resolutions and maintaining robust trade and energy links with Moscow.
Despite Russia’s overtures, India remains wary of aligning too closely with a China-led bloc. Persistent border tensions with Beijing, China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan, and concerns over China’s growing regional ambitions all temper New Delhi’s enthusiasm for trilateral cooperation. The RIC format, while useful for dialogue, carries the risk of undermining India’s efforts to balance China and maintain its strategic autonomy.
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US-India Frictions And the Search For Balance
Recent US criticism of India’s continued defence purchases from Russia and its participation in BRICS has added another layer of complexity. While US officials have voiced concerns that these actions undermine dollar hegemony and strategic alignment, they also acknowledge India’s economic dynamism and the potential for a future trade deal. India’s leadership is thus navigating a delicate balancing act: deepening ties with the US for technology and security benefits, while retaining its longstanding defence relationship with Russia and managing its own interests vis-à-vis China.
Russia’s RIC Gambit: Wishful Thinking Or Strategic Play?
Experts suggest that Russia’s push to revive the RIC format may be more aspirational than realistic in the current geopolitical climate. While Moscow sees value in presenting a united Eurasian front, India’s trust in China has eroded significantly since the 2020 Ladakh border clash, and direct mediation or deep trilateral cooperation remains unlikely. India’s policy of “multi-alignment” and strategic autonomy means it will continue to hedge its bets, leveraging ties with all major powers without becoming dependent on any single one.
The Road Ahead: India’s Calculated Balancing Act
Looking forward, India is expected to maintain its careful balancing act. New Delhi will likely continue to expand defense cooperation and logistics integration with the US, diversify its arms imports through deals with France and Israel, and ramp up indigenous defense production. At the same time, it will preserve its relationship with Russia for critical military technology and energy security, while remaining cautious about any alignment that could be perceived as anti-Western or overly accommodating to China.
Ultimately, Russia’s efforts to woo India into a closer alliance with China reflect Moscow’s urgent need to offset Western pressure and its recognition of India’s rising global stature. However, India’s core priority will remain safeguarding its own strategic autonomy, managing great-power competition, and ensuring that its foreign policy serves national interests above all else.
Based On TOI Report
Agencies
