Pakistan’s military preparedness is facing a critical crisis due to a severe shortage of artillery ammunition, which has dramatically reduced its war-fighting capabilities to just four days of high-intensity conflict. This vulnerability stems primarily from Pakistan’s recent arms exports-particularly large shipments of 155mm artillery shells and 122mm rockets-to Ukraine, which have drained its domestic war reserves to dangerously low levels.
Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Pakistan covertly supplied millions of rounds of artillery shells, rockets, and small arms ammunition to Ukraine, seeking financial relief amid its economic crisis. Between February and March 2023 alone, Pakistan exported 42,000 122mm BM-21 rockets and 60,000 155mm howitzer shells, earning hundreds of millions of dollars.
The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF), responsible for domestic ammunition production, has struggled to replenish depleted stocks due to outdated manufacturing lines and surging global demand, further compounding the crisis.
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Pakistan’s military doctrine is heavily reliant on rapid mobilisation, artillery, and armoured units to counter India’s numerical superiority. The shortage of 155mm shells for M109 howitzers and 122mm rockets for BM-21 systems has left these crucial platforms under-equipped, severely compromising the army’s ability to mount or sustain effective defensive or offensive operations.
There is a severe duration of combat capability of Pakistan army. Intelligence assessments and defence analysts consistently estimate that Pakistan’s current artillery ammunition reserves would last only 96 hours (four days) in a full-scale, high-intensity conflict.
This shortfall has forced the military to suspend exercises, cut rations, and halt scheduled war games due to fuel and supply shortages. The situation has generated deep concern and even panic within the military hierarchy, as highlighted during the Special Corps Commanders Conference on May 2, 2025.
By prioritising short-term financial gain through arms exports, Pakistan’s leadership has inflicted a long-term strategic wound on its military readiness. The depleted stockpiles leave the country exposed to rapid defeat in any prolonged conventional conflict, particularly against India.
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Pakistan’s broader economic troubles-marked by high inflation, mounting debt, and dwindling foreign reserves-have exacerbated the military’s logistical and operational challenges, further undermining its ability to recover from the current crisis.
In parallel to its conventional military vulnerabilities, Pakistan has also engaged in cyber operations targeting Indian institutions, including schools and veterans’ platforms. These efforts, however, have largely been thwarted by Indian cybersecurity agencies, reflecting Pakistan’s growing frustration and its broader pattern of provocation through non-conventional means.
Pakistan’s war-fighting capability is critically undermined by an acute shortage of artillery ammunition, a direct result of extensive arms exports and inadequate domestic replenishment. This has left its military doctrine and operational readiness in jeopardy, with the army able to sustain only four days of high-intensity conflict-posing a grave strategic risk in the event of escalation with India.
Agencies
