Operation Sindoor, conducted in 2025, represents a watershed moment in South Asian maritime security that has fundamentally exposed the deteriorating state of Pakistan’s submarine capabilities while demonstrating India’s growing naval dominance in the Arabian Sea. The operation revealed systemic vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s undersea warfare capacity, from operational readiness deficits to strategic deterrence gaps, creating profound implications for regional stability and the balance of maritime power in the Indo-Pacific.
The Scale And Strategic Impact of Operation Sindoor
Operation Sindoor marked an unprecedented demonstration of India’s naval capabilities, deploying what sources describe as a 36-ship armada that effectively blockaded Pakistan’s primary naval facility at Karachi. This massive naval deployment represented a stark contrast to the limited six-warship operation conducted during the 1971 conflict, illustrating the dramatic expansion of India’s maritime projection capabilities over the past five decades. At the heart of this operation was the Carrier Battle Group INS Vikrant, accompanied by 8 to 10 warships forward deployed into the Arabian Sea, marking one of the Indian Navy’s largest real-time operational movements outside routine peacetime exercises.
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The operation’s composition demonstrated India’s comprehensive approach to maritime warfare, featuring seven destroyers equipped with BrahMos missiles, Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Missiles (MRSAM), and Varunastra heavyweight torpedoes, capable of engaging surface, aerial, and underwater threats. Seven stealth guided-missile frigates, including the newly inducted INS Tushil, formed a formidable naval wall off the western coast, while an estimated six submarines operated in close coordination below the surface, adding a critical stealth component to India’s maritime posture. The operation was triggered by a terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam that killed 26 people, prompting India to launch a tri-pronged pressure strategy on Pakistan that placed the Navy on high alert.
The strategic significance of Operation Sindoor extends beyond its immediate tactical objectives, fundamentally altering Pakistan’s perception of India’s naval capabilities and willingness to project power in contested waters. Pakistan’s response included issuing NAVAREA warnings amid fears of a possible naval strike, indicating the operation’s success in creating strategic uncertainty and demonstrating India’s capacity for sustained maritime pressure. The deployment’s scale and sophistication revealed India’s evolution into a blue-water navy capable of conducting complex multi-domain operations far from its home waters.
Pakistan’s Submarine Fleet Crisis: A Capability Assessment
The most alarming revelation from Operation Sindoor concerns the critical state of Pakistan’s submarine fleet, with satellite imagery from March 2025 exposing severe operational limitations that fundamentally undermine the country’s maritime deterrence. Recent analysis indicates that only two of Pakistan’s five operational submarines remain functional, comprising one Agosta-70 class vessel and one Agosta-90B class submarine, while the remaining three are either undergoing prolonged maintenance or stranded on land for repairs. This dramatic reduction in operational capacity represents a catastrophic decline in Pakistan’s undersea warfare capabilities at a time when regional tensions have reached unprecedented levels.
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The Agosta-70 class submarines, PNS Hashmat and PNS Hurmat, commissioned between 1979-1980, suffer from ageing infrastructure and critical mechanical failures that render them largely ineffective. Reports indicate that PNS Hurmat has a faulty starboard engine and electronic warfare system, effectively removing it from operational status. The Agosta-90B class submarines, PNS Khalid, PNS Saad, and PNS Hamza, commissioned between 1999 and 2008, are undergoing extensive mid-life upgrades by Turkey’s STM company, but these modernisation efforts face significant delays due to supply-chain disruptions and financial constraints.
The modernisation program for the Agosta-90B class submarines involves comprehensive overhauls of sonar suites, periscopes, command and control systems, naval data distribution systems, converters, steering control systems, chilled water systems, and radar and electronic support systems. While STM completed the modernisation of PNS Hamza in 2020 and delivered the second submarine, PNS Khalid, in 2023, the remaining vessel continues to undergo extensive repairs. The prolonged nature of these maintenance cycles, combined with the complex technical requirements for upgrading MESMA air-independent propulsion systems, has created a situation where Pakistan’s submarine fleet operates at less than half its nominal capacity during a period of heightened strategic tensions.
Questionable Strategic Deterrence
The operation also cast doubt on Pakistan’s nuclear second-strike capability. While the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile is touted as a key component, analysts dispute its effective range and operational integration, further eroding confidence in Pakistan’s strategic deterrence posture. The limited underwater endurance of Pakistan’s diesel-electric submarines, compared to nuclear-powered counterparts, compounds these concerns.
Credibility Crisis And Propaganda Exposure
Operation Sindoor not only exposed technical and operational deficiencies but also revealed attempts by Pakistan to use manipulated images and outdated footage to exaggerate its naval readiness. Open source intelligence debunked these claims, significantly damaging the credibility of Pakistan’s military communications and raising suspicions about the authenticity of its reported capabilities.
Strategic Deterrence Implications And Nuclear Second-Strike Credibility
Pakistan’s submarine crisis has profound implications for its nuclear deterrence strategy, particularly concerning the credibility of its second-strike capability through submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The Pakistan Navy has promoted the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile as a cornerstone of its strategic deterrence, claiming an operational range of 450 kilometers. However, independent analysts contest these claims, suggesting the missile’s effective operational range is closer to 250 kilometers, which drastically limits its strategic utility against inland Indian targets and compromises Pakistan’s deterrence posture.
Financial Constraints And Economic Impact On Naval Capabilities
Pakistan’s submarine crisis is fundamentally rooted in severe financial constraints that limit the country’s ability to maintain existing capabilities while simultaneously modernising its fleet. Foreign exchange shortages and spiralling external debt have caused repeated construction delays at Karachi Shipyard, disrupting scheduled submarine inductions and severely constraining the development of broader maritime capabilities.
Technological Gaps And Modernisation Requirements
The technical challenges facing Pakistan’s submarine fleet reveal fundamental gaps in indigenous capabilities and over reliance on foreign technology transfers that create strategic vulnerabilities. The complexity of modern submarine systems, from advanced sonar arrays to air-independent propulsion technologies, requires sustained investment in research and development infrastructure that Pakistan has been unable to maintain. The MESMA air-independent propulsion systems installed in Pakistan’s Agosta-90B submarines represent sophisticated technology that requires specialised maintenance capabilities and supply chains that Pakistan struggles to support independently.
The modernisation efforts being conducted by Turkey’s STM company highlight both the potential for international cooperation and the limitations of depending on external partners for critical military capabilities. While the comprehensive upgrade program addresses multiple systems simultaneously, including sonar suites, periscopes, command and control systems, and electronic warfare capabilities, the extended timeline and complexity of these modifications demonstrate the challenges of maintaining technological relevance in rapidly evolving submarine warfare environments. The certification requirements from international classification societies like DNV add additional complexity and cost to modernisation efforts while ensuring safety and reliability standards.
Future submarine programs, including the Hangor-class vessels, will require Pakistan to develop indigenous support capabilities to avoid the cycle of dependence and vulnerability that characterises current operations. The transfer-of-technology provisions in the Hangor contract represent an opportunity to build domestic submarine construction and maintenance capabilities, but realising these benefits requires sustained investment in technical education, infrastructure development, and supply chain management that may exceed Pakistan’s current financial and institutional capacity.
Conclusion
Operation Sindoor has fundamentally exposed the critical vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s submarine fleet while demonstrating India’s growing maritime dominance in South Asian waters. The revelation that only two of Pakistan’s five submarines remain operational represents a strategic crisis that undermines the country’s naval deterrence and second-strike capabilities at a time of heightened regional tensions. The combination of ageing platforms, extended maintenance cycles, financial constraints, and delays in modernisation programs has created a perfect storm that threatens Pakistan’s maritime security for the remainder of this decade.
The broader implications of this submarine crisis extend far beyond bilateral India-Pakistan relations to reshape regional power dynamics and strategic partnerships throughout the Indo-Pacific. India’s demonstrated naval superiority has strengthened its position with key partners while exposing the limitations of China’s defence exports and Pakistan’s strategic vulnerabilities. The financial and technological challenges facing Pakistan’s submarine modernisation efforts suggest that these capability gaps will persist well into the 2030s, fundamentally altering the regional balance of maritime power and creating new opportunities for enhanced cooperation between India and its strategic partners in maintaining Indo-Pacific security.
IDN (With Input From Agencies)
Agencies
