India’s cabinet faces a time-compressed decision: whether to import two to three squadrons foreign fifth-generation combat aircraft—roughly 40-60 jets—to shore up an increasingly thin fighter inventory until the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) finally joins the fleet in the mid-2030s, according to a report by ANI. Washington has floated the F-35A Lightning-II, while Moscow has countered with the Su-57E, each framing its bid as the fastest route to stealth parity with China’s J-20 and Pakistan’s impending FC-31 deliveries. The following report analyses the strategic rationale, industrial leverage, cost calculus and operational trade-offs that will shape New Delhi’s choice.
Strategic Connotations And Rationale
Indian planners must deter simultaneous pressure on two fronts. By October 2025, IAF fighter strength will dip to 29–31 squadrons—against an authorised 42—after the final MiG-21 units retire.
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Ten additional Jaguar, Mirage-2000 and MiG-29 squadrons leave service by 2037, potentially slicing the fleet to 25 squadrons without large-scale replacement. Interim stealth fighters promise a stop-gap shield while AMCA prototypes mature, mitigating a widening delta vis-à-vis the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), which now fields 66 squadrons and has begun routine J-20 rotations to Tibet.
Emerging Threat Environment: China And Pakistan
Satellite imagery shows six J-20s based at Shigatse, just 155 km from the Line of Actual Control, supported by KJ-500 AEW&C coverage. Pakistan, for its part, is preparing to induct up to 40 Chinese FC-31 (J-35) stealth jets “within months,” with pilots already training in China. Retired Pakistani officers argue that the FC-31 acquisition will hand Islamabad a 12-14-year qualitative edge if India remains without stealth capability.
Indigenous AMCA Program Status
The Cabinet Committee on Security cleared ₹15,000 crore (US$1.8 billion) for prototype development in March 2024; five test aircraft are scheduled, with roll-out in 2028–29 and first flight in 2029. Certification is planned for 2032 and induction in 2034, followed by series production in 2035. A new “industry partnership model” now allows private bidders to compete against HAL for production rights, but the shift introduces organisational uncertainty that could prolong timelines.
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Interim Acquisition Options
Aircraft Profiles
Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning-II – single-engine, all-aspect stealth multi-role jet with sensor fusion and network-centric architecture, Mach 1.6 top speed and 1,500 nmi ferry range.
Sukhoi Su-57E Felon – twin-engine super-manoeuvrable stealth multi-role fighter, Mach 2 dash, ~1,500 km combat radius, 10-ton payload; export model pitched with “full source-code access” and Indian co-production.
Comparative Performance And Survivability
The F-35’s frontal radar cross-section (RCS) is <0.005 m² (≈–40 dBsm), aided by embedded sensors and internal weapons bays. Russian designers claim the Su-57’s shaping, plasma-screen coating and L-band radars yield a frontal RCS of 0.01–0.1 m², yet Western analysts question rear-hemisphere signature due to iris-type nozzle doors that still expose hot engine metal.
Avionics And Data Fusion
The F-35A’s AN/APG-81 AESA, DAS electro-optical sphere and Link-16 backbone feed the jet’s Mission Data Files; the aircraft routinely pushes track files to USAF E-3, P-8I and Patriot batteries, an advantage India could leverage along the Quad network. The Su-57E fields N036 Byelka AESA suites across nose and cheek arrays plus L402 Himalayas EW pods; Russia offers India encryption keys and root-level software access for indigenous algorithm insertion.
Engine And Super-Cruise
F-35A uses a single F135-PW-100 thrust-vectoring turbofan (28,000 lbf dry, 43,000 lbf with afterburner) but cannot super-cruise above Mach 1.2 under full war-load. Su-57 prototypes fly with AL-41F1 twins (31,000 lbf dry each) and demonstrate Mach 1.3 super-cruise; later “Izdeliye 30” engines promise improved thrust-to-weight and 30 percent lower fuel burn.
Weapons Integration
The F-35 armament suite would hinge on U.S. export release; initial packages could include AIM-120C-8, GBU-53/B SDB-II and SPEAR-3, but Israeli-style open mission systems remain improbable. Russia, by contrast, offers the K-77M AESA seeker missile (180 km), R-37M hypersonic AAM (300 km) and Kh-59MK2 cruise missiles alongside the option to integrate Indian Astra and SAAW munitions.
Infrastructure And Maintenance
F-35 sustainment depends on the Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS) evolving into ODIN, hosted on U.S. servers, a point of sensitivity for Delhi’s strategic autonomy narrative. The Su-57E would ride Russia’s MRO playbook merged with HAL’s Su-30 line at Nashik, with Moscow promising source code for Indian predictive-maintenance modules.
Unit Cost and Life-Cycle Economics
| Parametre | F-35A | Su-57E |
|---|---|---|
| Flyaway (US Baseline) | US$82.5 million | $35-40 Million |
| Typical Export Unit | US$100–110 million | US$35–80 Million |
| Operating Cost/Flight Hour | US$30,000 | US$18,000–22,000 (est.) |
| 40-year Life-Cycle Cost (For 110-Jets) | US$80.2 billion | US$48–55 Billion (est.) |
| Technology-Transfer Level | Limited; No Source Code | Full Source Code Access |
Technology Transfer And Make-in-India
Lockheed Martin’s standard F-35 foreign military sale forbids depot-level electronics repair outside approved hubs, limiting Indian industry to line-replaceable-unit swaps. Conversely, ROSTEC’s June 2025 bid bundles licensed production at HAL Nashik, 60 percent Indian content and permission to embed domestic GaN AESA radars. ROSTEC claims a Made-in-India Su-57 could undercut the F-35A price tag by at least US$10 million per jet.
Conclusion
India’s decision on interim fifth-generation fighters is not merely an aircraft purchase but a strategic hinge influencing deterrence credibility, industrial autonomy and long-term fiscal bandwidth. A Su-57E co-production line promises deeper technology absorption at lower unit cost, aligning with Make-in-India imperatives, yet carries geopolitical baggage amid sanctions pressure.
The F-35A offers unrivalled networked warfare performance and political heft within the Quad but risks tethering the IAF to opaque sustainment software and constraining its S-400 doctrine. With squadron strength sliding toward 29 and the AMCA still a decade away, the acquisition clock is ticking louder than ever. The choice Delhi makes in 2025 will echo across the subcontinent’s skies well into the 2050s.
IDN (With ANI Inputs)
Agency
