In July 2025, India undertook a significant demonstration of its strategic military capabilities by successfully test-firing two nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, Prithvi-II and Agni-I, from the Integrated Test Range in Chandipur, Odisha. This move took place in a climate of heightened regional tension, following a period of direct military confrontation with Pakistan earlier in the year. Defence officials described these launches as a validation of India’s operational and technical readiness and as a reaffirmation of its strategic deterrence posture.
Operation Sindoor And Its Aftermath
The missile tests followed the May 2025 military conflict—codenamed Operation Sindoor—triggered in response to a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians.
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India attributed the attack to Pakistan-backed militants, sparking four days of airstrikes and cross-border hostilities between the two nuclear-armed nations. The hostilities resulted in at least 21 Indian and 40 Pakistani civilian casualties, in addition to significant military losses on both sides.
International alarm grew as both sides exchanged airstrikes, including the first documented use of drones in an India-Pakistan conflict. Amid fears of potential escalation to nuclear engagement, the United States—led by then-President Donald Trump—intervened, brokering a ceasefire that has since stabilised the border.
Missile Tests: Technical Overview
Strategic Forces Command supervised the recent missile trials. Key details of the tested missiles include:
Prithvi-II
Range: ~350 km (approximately 217 miles)
Payload: Up to 500 kg
Capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads
Agni-I
Range: 700–900 km (approximately 435–560 miles)
Payload: Up to 1,000 kg
Nuclear-capable and designed for quick deployment
These tests, conducted on July 17, were described by the Ministry of Defence as fully successful, confirming that all operational parameters were met. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh publicly lauded the Indian armed forces and defence research teams for this achievement, highlighting its importance for national security.
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Akash-Prime Missile Deployment
Prior to the ballistic missile trials, India also tested the domestically-developed Akash Prime surface-to-air missile at high altitude in Ladakh on July 16. The Akash Prime, an advanced variant of the Akash system, demonstrated its ability to destroy high-speed unmanned targets above 4,500 meters altitude. Enhancements to its radar and radio frequency guidance have been made based on field feedback, showcasing the adaptability of India’s indigenous defence production ecosystem.
Regional And International Implications
The proximity of the missile launches to the recent conflict—and the nature of the tested systems—sparked renewed fears of an arms race and potential nuclear escalation in South Asia. While both India and Pakistan ultimately refrained from crossing the “nuclear threshold” during the May hostilities, the demonstration of strategic missile capabilities is widely interpreted as a clear message of deterrence by New Delhi. Analysts highlight that military signalling of this kind, especially after a near-crisis, carries both reassurance for domestic audiences and warnings to adversaries.
Despite the escalation and alarm raised internationally, both governments—supported by rapid intervention from the United States—maintained that nuclear weapons were never actively considered for use during the conflict, emphasising strict control over their respective arsenals.
Advantage India
India’s recent missile tests—including the flight trials of nuclear-capable Prithvi-II, Agni-I, and advancements like the Agni-V equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology—have marked a significant evolution in its nuclear deterrence strategy and force posture. These tests come amid increasing strategic competition with China.
- Shift in Deterrence Posture
Counterforce Capabilities: With the integration of MIRV technology in missiles like Agni-V, India gains the ability to target multiple sites with a single missile, enhancing its potential for a counterforce (“first strike”) posture, rather than relying solely on massive retaliation. This broadens the scope of its nuclear doctrine and increases ambiguity for adversaries.
Credible Minimum Deterrence: While India maintains an official “no first use” and “credible minimum deterrent” doctrine, the deployment of sophisticated systems like MIRVs could indicate a shift toward a more flexible, capability-driven deterrence approach.
- Stability Concerns In South Asia
Incentive For Arms Modernisation: India’s advancements increase threat perceptions in both Pakistan and China. Pakistan, in particular, is likely to respond by modernising its own nuclear arsenal—investing in second-strike capabilities, hypersonic missiles, and advanced intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance (ISR) systems.
Arms Race Dynamics: By introducing MIRV and enhanced missile defence capabilities, India may inadvertently trigger a qualitative and quantitative arms race in the region. This raises the risk that both Pakistan and China will accelerate the development and deployment of similar or asymmetric capabilities.
Nuclear Escalation Risks: The increased speed and complexity of MIRV-equipped missiles compress the decision-making window in a crisis, raising the risk of misinterpretation or inadvertent escalation. Without robust regional crisis management mechanisms, this heightens the possibility of accidental nuclear use.
- Regional Deterrence Equilibrium
Lowering The Nuclear Threshold: The deployment of more versatile missiles by India may lower the threshold for nuclear use, particularly as Pakistan continues to emphasise tactical nuclear weapons operationally. This dynamic could further destabilise the South Asian security landscape.
Impact On China: India’s extended missile ranges and new deterrent measures are also aimed at China, increasing mutual threat perceptions and potentially drawing China and Pakistan closer in military cooperation to counterbalance India’s growing capabilities.
- Implications For Crisis Stability
Decision-Making Pressure: Advanced missile technologies such as MIRVs and hypersonic missiles can compress leaders’ response times, increasing the chance of miscalculation during rapidly evolving conflicts.
Need For Risk Reduction: Experts emphasise that, in the absence of robust bilateral or regional risk-reduction mechanisms and flight-test notification regimes, each new test adds to regional instability instead of strengthening deterrence.
India’s recent missile tests represent a substantial enhancement of its nuclear delivery capabilities and signalling. However, these technological advances also:
Raise the risks of an arms race in the region by incentivising adversaries to pursue similar upgrades.
Lower the nuclear use threshold by enabling more flexible and rapid response options.
Increase the complexity and risk of nuclear decision-making, which, without new diplomatic frameworks for crisis management and confidence building, could dangerously destabilise South Asia’s fragile deterrence equilibrium.
Conclusion
India’s recent test-firing of the nuclear-capable Prithvi-II and Agni-I ballistic missiles, alongside the deployment of Akash Prime, underscores a period of assertive military posturing following the most serious Indo-Pakistani clashes in years.
These actions, while validating India’s operational readiness and indigenous defence advances, have also served as strategic signalling during a period of delicate ceasefire. Regional stability remains fragile, underpinned by deterrence measures and ongoing diplomatic engagement.
Agencies
