Why India May Change The Rules of Ganga Water Sharing With Bangladesh

India is considering changing the rules of the Ganga (Ganges) water sharing treaty with Bangladesh as the 30-year agreement, signed in 1996, approaches its expiration in 2026. Several factors are driving India’s push for a renegotiation and possible reset of the treaty: India is seeking an additional 30,000–35,000 cusecs of water during the critical dry season (January to May) to meet the growing needs of West Bengal and neighbouring states. The demand for water has increased significantly for irrigation, industrial use, drinking water, and maintaining the navigability of Kolkata Port, as well as for hydroelectric power generation.

The West Bengal government has already communicated its future water requirements to the central government, emphasizing that the current treaty provisions are insufficient for the region’s needs.

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Since the treaty was signed, both the scale and nature of water usage in India have evolved. Rapid urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural expansion have heightened water stress. Additionally, climate change has caused unpredictable river flows, making the original water-sharing formula—based on historical averages—less reliable. Both sides now recognize the need for a more climate-resilient and adaptive treaty that can accommodate extreme conditions and fluctuating water availability.

India’s recent decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan signals a broader shift in its approach to trans-boundary water agreements. With Bangladesh’s interim government developing closer ties with China, India is keen to ensure that its own strategic interests are protected in any future water-sharing arrangement. There is also a preference in New Delhi for a shorter-term agreement (10–15 years) that allows for regular reviews and adjustments, rather than another 30-year commitment.

Bangladesh has repeatedly accused India of not delivering its fair share of water during crucial dry periods, particularly in March and April, citing data that it did not receive its due share in 39 out of 60 critical periods between 1997 and 2016.

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The treaty lacks a minimum guaranteed flow clause, relying instead on emergency consultations if flows drop below a certain threshold, which has led to frequent disputes and allegations of shortfalls. Environmental concerns have also been raised, as reduced flows threaten the Sundarbans delta ecosystem and increase salinity in both countries.

Article XII of the treaty states that it is “renewable on the basis of mutual consent,” giving India the legal flexibility to push for changes or even walk away if its concerns are not addressed. As the upper riparian state, India holds significant leverage in the negotiations.

India’s move to seek changes in the Ganga water sharing treaty is driven by a combination of rising domestic water needs, the impact of climate change, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and persistent implementation disputes.

The next round of negotiations will test the ability of both countries to balance development priorities with ecological and diplomatic imperatives, ensuring a fair and sustainable sharing of a critical trans-boundary river.

Agencies