The US Defence Intelligence Agency’s 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment provides a detailed analysis of South Asia’s security environment, emphasising the evolving military dynamics between India, Pakistan, and China.
According to the report, Pakistan continues to regard India as an “existential threat,” shaping its defence strategy and driving ongoing military modernization, particularly in its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan is actively developing battlefield nuclear weapons to offset India’s conventional military superiority and is modernizing its nuclear command and control systems.
The report explicitly states that Pakistan is “almost certainly” procuring weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries, with China identified as the primary source of materials and technology for these programs. Some of these materials are transhipped through third countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
China remains Pakistan’s main economic and military partner, providing substantial support and participating in multiple joint military exercises annually.
Read- After Operation Sindoor’s Grand Success, India, Russia Begin Talks On Advanced BrahMos Production
However, the relationship has experienced strains due to terrorist attacks targeting Chinese workers involved in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, resulting in the deaths of Chinese nationals in Pakistan in 2024.
On the other hand, India’s defence priorities are increasingly centred on countering China, which it views as its “primary adversary,” while Pakistan is considered more of an “ancillary security problem” to be managed.
Despite recent cross-border hostilities, including missile and drone exchanges in May 2025 following terrorist attacks, India’s strategic focus remains on enhancing its military power, asserting global leadership, and building bilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean region to counter Chinese influence. India is also modernizing its military, testing advanced missile systems, and expanding its nuclear triad capabilities.
The report notes that India continues to maintain its longstanding defence relationship with Russia, primarily to sustain its inventory of Russian-origin tanks and fighter aircraft, despite reducing new procurements.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military priorities for the coming year include managing cross-border skirmishes, counterterrorism operations against groups like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch militants, and further nuclear modernization. In 2024, militants killed over 2,500 people in Pakistan, highlighting persistent internal security challenges.
The US intelligence assessment underscores a region marked by deep-seated rivalries, rapid military modernization, and complex security partnerships.
Pakistan’s pursuit of WMD capabilities, heavily reliant on Chinese support, remains a central concern, while India’s strategic calculus is increasingly shaped by the perceived threat from China, with Pakistan relegated to a secondary, though still significant, security challenge.
Based On NDTV Report
Agencies
